By Erin Henry

Senior Managing Broker Royal LePage Real Estate Services LTD. Brokerage.

It’s no secret the Toronto Condo Market has been a hot topic for months. What is happening with inventory? Where are the prices headed? Are new condo projects going to complete? Will the interest rates go down? With all of this uncertainty, there is no surprise it’s been relatively slow out of the gates.

The 2024 real estate landscape in Toronto has seen many significant changes. From fluctuation in prices to instability in lending criteria, the market has been extremely volatile. For those still treading water, understanding and monitoring these changes can be the difference between profit or loss altogether. Knowledge is power. Having a true grasp on the condo market can assist in making practical decisions, whether you’re a seller or a buyer. Let’s dive in further.

* Home sales in the GTA have a major impact on the condo market. It has been suggested that the slowdown in housing sales directly impacts condo sales. This can be viewed in two ways. 1) the prices will follow suit and adjust to the “new norm” and 2) with home purchasing becoming more tedious, the condo market is best plan B.

• Mortgage and interest rates are an enormous factor impacting stability in the market. The relationship between the rates and home prices is often contrary – when rates go up, prices go down and vice versa. Economists are forecasting rates to go start trending downward by mid-year, triggering price increases in the latter half of 2024.

Now with some knowledge in place, what are this year’s forecasts? It has been suggested Toronto’s condo sector has always been a hot spot for investors and first-time buyers. Both of which have more realistic expectations, in terms of price and affordability. Having said that, TD economists anticipate an uptick in sales volumes. Royal LePage concurs, with an average of 6% increase in home prices, indicating positivity in the months ahead.

How does this equate to the new construction projects? New construction is an integral part of the Toronto condo terrain. However, recent stats show a 47% year-over-year drop in new condo sales. Consequently, investors and developers are extremely apprehensive about launching new projects. My prediction on the positive side is this will start to shift and the new construction projects will make a comeback in the near future.

Finally, what do we see for condominium resales and investments for 2024? Investor ownership has and will continue to play a pivotal role in the market. Unfortunately, due to changes in occupancy and rental rates, many are currently operating at a loss. Despite these challenges, optimists project that an educated, cautious investor can take advantage of lower pricing and unattainable home ownership for many in the GTA.

The 2024 condo market will be a bit of a see as we go. Experts caution, but do not deny a sense of optimism. We will see a see-saw of obstacles balanced by great opportunities of growth and profit. Knowledge, adaptability and resourcefulness are key!